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Inclou aquests noms: Nate Silver, By (author) Nate Silver

Crèdit de la imatge: randy stewart from Seattle, WA, USA

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This book is now over ten years old, so it doesn't touch on the latest US elections or the coronavirus pandemic as something to predict, but its discussions of previous forecasting challenges related to epidemics and election results are still very interesting and thoughtful, as was the discussion of the weather forecasting challenges and successes.
queen_ypolita | Hi ha 84 ressenyes més | Jul 13, 2024 |
Interesting, but not interesting enough to drag me through to the end. It got repetitive, shallow and obvious early and seemed to refuse to go deeper.
zot79 | Hi ha 84 ressenyes més | Aug 20, 2023 |
It goes without saying that "popular statistics" book is mostly an oxymoron. On the one hand, statistics is largely a very dry field. On the other hand, those of us who do understand statistics (and even freaks, like my husband, who enjoy statistics), find any attempt at popular statistics largely too elementary to be interesting. Nate Silver doesn't just walk the fine line in the middle, he eliminates it and writes a completely novel statistic book that is appealing to both the mathematician and the math hater: this book fascinates.

Nate Silver focuses on the forecasting in areas that are difficult to predict: weather, climate, earthquakes, poker, politics, chess and sports. Each of these areas is individually interesting -- I had never spent much time considering online poker, for instance, and the chapter focusing on poker is not just mathematically-focused, but also an expose on the world of online poker and the life and times (or at least the two year subset thereof) of Silver's 6-figure gambling career. In addition, his overall thesis, which seems to be that we should use Bayesian analysis to think probabilistically about the world and continually evaluate our probabilities both builds naturally and has far-reaching applications.

I feel like I have spent years of my life trying to explain to medical students (and more advanced physicians who should really know better) why every time a paper is published with a p
… (més)
settingshadow | Hi ha 84 ressenyes més | Aug 19, 2023 |
Reading this book is like going for a walk with Nate Silver while he discusses finding the signal in the noise in situations from his life and that he has researched for you. The subjects are wide-ranging. All are centered on the idea of prediction, but prediction is defined loosely enough to cover almost any analytical problem. Topics include the 2oo8 financial collapse, the inaccuracy of predictions in politics and economics, baseball statistics, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, predicting next year’s influenza variant, professional poker, chess, Bayes theorem (explained with unusually clear charts), and the difficulty in predicting military and terrorist attacks (as the author says, Where our enemies will strike us is predictable: it’s where we least expect them to.).… (més)
markm2315 | Hi ha 84 ressenyes més | Jul 1, 2023 |



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