Georgia runoff for US senate seats: Jan 5, 2021 (2)

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Georgia runoff for US senate seats: Jan 5, 2021 (2)

1margd
gen. 5, 9:22am

Kelly Loeffler's new Facebook ad darkens skin of Raphael Warnock, her Black opponent
Roger Sollenberger | January 5, 2021

...According to the Facebook Ad Library, on Dec. 29 the Loeffler campaign spent between $3,000 and $3,500 on an ad called "Too Radical. Too Corrupt," and dropped between $40,000 and $45,000 on a second, more aggressive counterpart titled "Beyond Radical Raphael," which uses some of the same footage, but with Warnock's skin noticeably darkened. Here are screenshots taken from the two ads...(!)

https://www.salon.com/2021/01/04/kelly-loefflers-new-facebook-ad-darkens-skin-of...

__________________________________________________​

If Warnock were not a gentleman, bet he'd be tempted to exaggerate Loeffler's lazy eye in HIS ads...

2Earthling1
gen. 5, 10:14am

Given that they cheated before (for decades), Democrats will cheat again and win these elections.

3aspirit
gen. 5, 10:33am

>2 Earthling1: You've misspelled Republicans again.

4aspirit
gen. 5, 10:47am

Notes for topic followers:

Below is my estimated timeline. I've been watching Georgia elections for years. There's a pattern.

Votes won't be counted until tonight. Polling stations typically close at 7 PM (EST) but are pushed back when they are significant problems, and there's always someplace in Georgia that has significant problems each election day.

The courts often play a role in getting votes counted election week, because the (Republican-led) state often attempts to throw out thousands of ballots for dubious reasons. Every election. Friday will be a deadline for determining which ballots will be counted.

Anyway, counting takes a few days in the larger counties. The record-breaking number of absentee (mail-in) ballots this time means it might take longer than usual. Certification might not be until next Monday.

After certification, there might be a recount, which is not automatic but is expected to happen. Results must have no more than a 0.5% difference in votes for a recount to be requested.

5Limelite
gen. 5, 12:39pm

The Senate runoff may hinge on the split ticket voters in counties north of the Atlanta slurb who refused to vote Trump, but retained the Repub. senate candidates. How can we determine if those voters will react to Trump's latest deplorable act against this state's SoS -- will they be turned off by the Party because of the Republican movement to defy the constitution and overturn the election? If so, it's good news for Democrats because those voters will either not vote at all or they will move to now support the Democratic candidates.

Another wrinkle in calculating the outcome is the 76,000+ voters who registered in time for the runoff but after the general and the 100,000+ total new voters who "sat out" the general but who have already voted early. Both new registrants and new voters favor the Democratic candidates; the latter category being 40% AfAm and 25% young voters (18-29).

Historically, in GA Republican turnout on election day exceeds Democratic same. However, this is the first election ever held in a Covid pandemic and the bulk of Republicans tend to be older white people who may have already voted by mail, if they haven't bought into the right wing nut Covid-19 is a hoax disinformation campaign. The Democratic voter turnout campaign on the ground has been particularly vigorous, not just in traditional urban populations but more so in the isolated rural areas dominated by white voters and where AfAm turnout tends to be low and subdued.

So the predictability calculation has additional and new variables that make the whole exercise of trying to figure out the results before the actual vote count is even more difficult than ever in the past.

6Limelite
Editat: gen. 5, 8:43pm

Watching the returns coming in and trends are already developing. CAUTION: It's still early. NOTE: Diff. counties count votes differently; some count all early votes firs, others report same day votes first.

That said --

45% total vote in 55% Warnock 54.1% Ossoff over Republicans

1) Dems are outperforming the margin Biden had in every county; FURTHER: Dooly Cty (small) Perdue DOWN 4% where he finished in Nov.; turnout DOWN 10%
2) Early voting in Fulton/Cobb/DeKalb metro Atlanta far outpaced expectation and more heavily favors Dems. Fulton reports early votes first
3) One county has flipped blue -- where Trump won, both Dem senate candidates are ahead with 90%+ reported
4) Turnout in north GA turnout is down 10-23%
5) Overall, turnout down 10% compared to general
6) Turnout above a 15% downturn in counties spells disaster for Republicans, and falloff, some heavy, is striking many of solid red north GA.

TREND: Ossoff running better than Biden 3-5% and 5-6% than himself performed in Nov.

In short -- $2000 cks to get through next 6 months (Democrats) is a more driving issue to voters than fearmongering socialism (Republican)

7davidgn
gen. 5, 9:04pm

Watching the returns come in. Nailbiter...

9davidgn
gen. 5, 9:25pm

Pretty sure it'll all be hanging on late Fulton County returns.

10Limelite
gen. 5, 10:56pm

Totally. It may split. 1 Dem 1 Repub Definitely close. I expect more post election drama, too. So the final result could be a long time declaring itself. Supreme Court like 2000 FL gen'l. election that gave it to Bush, perhaps?

11Limelite
Editat: gen. 5, 11:03pm

HOPE!

Massive number of votes yet to come from DeKalb Cty, heavily Democratic.
There are already experts predicting the Georgia Senate elections are over with Democrats winning.
Folks, it's over. We have enough returns to project that both Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff will win their Senate… https://t.co/jwy7ucTlvJ
— G. Elliott Morris (G. Elliott Morris)1609902653.0
Wish I had his confidence.

12KAzevedo
gen. 6, 2:28am

>11 Limelite: Networks have called it for Warnock! At the moment Ossoff leads. I can't allow myself to hope.

13margd
gen. 6, 4:40am

Steven Beschloss @StevenBeschloss | 8:24 PM · Jan 5, 2021:
For the record, @staceyabrams ? She could have responded to her loss as Governor and turn away in frustration.
Instead, she doubled down to confront voter suppression and drive voter registration and turnout.
We all owe her a big debt of gratitude.

14margd
Editat: gen. 6, 5:05am

The 10-year Stacey Abrams project to flip Georgia has nearly come to fruition.
Reid J. Epstein and Astead W. Herndon | Jan. 6, 2021, 12:01 a.m. ET5 hours ago

...Ms. Abrams was not alone in Georgia, of course: Numerous other Black women have led a decades-long organizing effort to transform the state’s electorate.

“We weren’t surprised that Georgia turned blue, because we’ve been working on it for over 15 years,” Deborah Scott, the founder of Georgia Stand Up, said after Mr. Biden’s victory in the general election.

“It’s been an uphill battle,” said Felicia Davis, a longtime organizer in Clayton County. “Because here, we’re not just women, we’re Southern women. And we’re not just Southern women, we’re Southern Black women.”

Still, Ms. Abrams was the most visible face at the forefront of the turnout push...

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/05/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.html?smid=t...

15margd
Editat: gen. 6, 6:49am

Thank you John Lewis, for paving the way for @staceyabrams, @ReverendWarnock, Jon @Ossoff and countless others.
Georgia, you did it, you showed up. You voted. The Union has finally won the battle of Atlanta. It only took 153 years.

1:56 ( https://twitter.com/pttrn_ntgrty/status/1346707456274022407 )
Change Has Come - John Lewis
From Pattern Integrity Films

- Pattern Integrity Films @pttrn_ntgrty | 1:37 AM · Jan 6, 2021

________________________________________________

Rev. Warnock was Congressman John Lewis's pastor.
Ossoff was Lewis's intern.
And somewhere, somehow both near and far, I have to think that Rep. Lewis is saying, "Well done."

- Fred Smith (Emory Law) @fredosmithjr | 12:24 AM · Jan 6, 2021

16Molly3028
Editat: gen. 6, 12:19pm

Georgia is finally moving into the 21st Century. The
voters are apparently sending two Dems to Yankee
territory DC. And, the actions of Trump and the
GOPers over the last two months have made it all
possible. The brown demographic wave is slowly
moving up the shore.

17margd
Editat: gen. 6, 9:49am

Ossoff to Perdue:

“First, you were lengthening my nose in attack ads to remind everyone I was Jewish”
0:49 ( https://twitter.com/BGrueskin/status/1321667876558901248 )
From Jon Ossoff

- Bill Grueskin @BGrueskin | 12:19 AM · Oct 29, 2020

18LolaWalser
gen. 6, 1:18pm

I hardly dare believe it... is it finally some really good news? Congrats to Georgians who made it happen!

19kiparsky
gen. 6, 1:35pm

>18 LolaWalser: Still waiting for the final word, but if I were Perdue I would be writing my concession speech right now.

20Limelite
gen. 6, 4:19pm

Ossoff Claims Victory with 26,000 Vote Margin Over Perdue

And by the way: The MLK, Jr. celebration at Ebenezer Church on Jan. 18 is going to be something to see!

Neither Republican concedes.

21aspirit
gen. 6, 5:01pm

>20 Limelite: I'm seeing Ossoff and Warnock both over the 0.5% threshold, so maybe there can't be a recount request?!

Unfortunately, with what's happening in the national capitol, anticipating what happens next has became much more difficult.

22KAzevedo
gen. 6, 5:26pm

>21 aspirit: I hope they are both taking extreme security measures.

23Limelite
gen. 6, 6:21pm

Yep. GA has saved the Republic, if it doesn't go down tonight.

Recount not automatic. Considered decisive. I think if either Repub wants one, they have to pay for it. Kelly can treat Perdue to a recount if they want to.

24Limelite
gen. 6, 8:44pm

Loeffler Eats Crow on Senate Floor

In, essentially, her farewell speech to the Senate, Loeffler withdraws from protesting the election by trying to steal it. Like a dying fish, she flips her last flop.

25davidgn
gen. 7, 5:45am

Except she then votes to uphold challenge to Pennsylvania.

26bnielsen
Editat: gen. 7, 6:55am

>24 Limelite: Loeffler Eats Crow on Senate Floor

You Americans do the strangest things inside your parliament.

27aspirit
gen. 7, 7:35am

>26 bnielsen: We're fond of making literary references that have lost all meaning...

https://wordhistories.net/2018/04/04/eat-crow-origin/

>25 davidgn: I've seen a guess that she's basing what she supports and what she objects to entirely on what's projected to influence her husband's stock market, but I don't think that's entirely accurate. I think she also estimates in leverage for future deals for her own businesses.

28LolaWalser
gen. 7, 9:30am

>27 aspirit:

And we non-Americans are fond of humour and irony. :)

29Limelite
Editat: gen. 10, 10:04pm

Why Dems Won GA

Because both Democratic candidates received more votes EACH than Biden.

How did that happen?

Because Democrats in a weakly Democratic stronghold with about 50% African Americans in rural SW GA turned put at 90%, while in deep red, solidly Republican NW G, where Trump visited just before Election day, they only turned out at 85%.

Warnock margin of victory: 89,000 votes approx

Ossoff margin of victory: 46,000 votes approx

Biden's margin of victory: 12,000 votes approx

Trump LOST the state and LOST the state for two additional Republicans.

Republicans lost their party when they embraced a con man and made him a Cult Leader. Republicans are now Remnants. BIG LOSERS !!!

But. . .

Trump, you ARE the BIGGEST LOSER !!!

30margd
gen. 9, 3:18pm

‘Find the fraud’: Trump pressured a Georgia elections investigator in a separate call legal experts say could amount to obstruction
Amy Gardner | Jan. 9, 2021

President Trump urged Georgia’s lead elections investigator to “find the fraud” in a lengthy December phone call, saying the official would be a “national hero,” according to an individual familiar with the call who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the conversation.

Trump placed the call to the investigations chief for the Georgia secretary of state’s office shortly before Christmas — while the individual was leading an inquiry into allegations of ballot fraud in Cobb County, in the suburbs of Atlanta, according to people familiar with the episode.

The president’s attempts to intervene in an ongoing investigation could amount to obstruction of justice or other criminal violations, legal experts said, though they cautioned a case could be difficult to prove.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger had launched the inquiry following allegations that Cobb election officials had improperly accepted mail ballots with signatures that did not match those on file — claims that state officials ultimately concluded had no merit.

...Trump’s call to the chief investigator occurred more than a week before he spent an hour on the phone with Raffensperger, pushing him to overturn the vote.

On the call, Trump sounded much like he did while talking to Raffensperger, according to the person familiar with the discussion — meandering from flattery to frustration and back again.

It was one in a series of personal interventions by Trump and his allies in Georgia since the November election...White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows (traveled to Cobb County to see for himself how the ballot-signature audit was proceeding--on taxpayer dime?)...Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) reached out to Raffensperger to inquire about whether entire counties’ mail ballots could be tossed if an audit found high rates of mismatched signatures in those jurisdictions...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-call-georgia-investigator/2021/01/...

31Limelite
gen. 19, 4:30pm

Sec'y of State Certifies Senator Ossoff and Senator Warnock Winners of Georgia Elections

With the election results certified, Warnock and Ossoff could be sworn in to their new roles in Washington as soon as Wednesday. Just in time for Impeachment II Trial.
Georgia has long been a Republican stronghold. But it has emerged as a key battleground state as its population has grown and demographics have shifted.

With their victories earlier this month, Warnock and Ossoff became the first Democrats in more than 20 years to win Senate contests in Georgia.

Warnock, the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, will be only the second Black senator from the South since Reconstruction.
John Ossoff will be the first Jewish senator from Georgia.

32Limelite
gen. 19, 4:59pm

‘Kraken’ Back on Its Leash; Davy Jones Reportedly Elated To Have His Pet Back

The attorney that no judges could tolerate in their courtrooms slunk out of hiding long enough to withdraw her lawsuit to overturn the Georgia election. Second only to Rudy Julie Annie in her level of batshit crazy, Sidney Powell couldn't see the inevitable light until the day before Joe Buiden's inauguration. And after. . .
Last week The court told Powell that, unless she applied to be admitted, her motions would be stricken and treated as if they had never been filed.

Powell voluntarily withdrew the lawsuit Tuesday. But it’s not the end of her legal issues.


In imitation of a QAnonny Powell filed a lawsuit full of conspiracy nonsense and totally lacking evidence of election corruption.
Like other lawsuits seeking to overturn the election results, Powell’s made numerous unsubstantiated allegations of voting fraud. Among other things, she falsely claimed the company that provided Georgia’s new election equipment has ties to Venezuela and could have altered results.
About that threat hanging over her of more "legal issues."
Dominion Voting Systems, the company that provided Georgia’s machines, filed a lawsuit against Powell in U.S. District Court in the District of Columbia. The lawsuit says Powell’s “viral disinformation campaign” has harmed its business.

Dominion is seeking more than $1.3 billion in damages.
Maybe Davey Jones will be able to come up with enough gold to cover Sydney's share.

33Limelite
feb. 23, 1:32pm

Perdue Drops 2022 Challenge Against Senator Warnock

Kelly Loeffler, however, has not ruled out jumping into the upcoming race.

Perdue reached his decision in the usual Republican manner, following "thoughts and prayers." Literally. He no insists that dropping out is a "personal decision, not a political one." Odd, since his announcement that he would run against Warnock was a political one.

Loeffler says here candidacy is "on the table." As for now, she's keeping busy organizing a white backlash to Stacey Abrams' successful voter turnout of Af-Am Democrats that resulted in both Republicans' defeat in 2020. I imagine Abrams considers Loeffler's come-lately copy-cat actions a compliment.
(Loeffler's) launch Monday of Greater Georgia, (is) a Republican answer to the powerful Fair Fight voting rights group that Stacey Abrams started days after her 2018 defeat in the race for governor.


34Limelite
feb. 24, 2:46pm

Turns Out, It WAS a Political Decision

Really, Republicans are so deplorable in so many ways, it's difficult to know under which header to post. Almost everything one reads, requires categorization in several threads. Just eight days after filing campaign paperwork exploring a challenge against Warnock, David Perdue withdrew after he trekked to Trump’s private Mar-A-Lago club in Florida on Friday to play golf with the former president. . . Trump spent much of their time together railing against Republicans he claimed didn’t do more to overturn his defeat.

Bet that didn't go well. But like it or not, the Republican Party feels it must grovel before Loser Trump, in a complete reversal of standard political practice -- learn from your losses and don't do the same thing again.
(A)ccording to people with direct knowledge. . .Trump spent much of their time together railing against Republicans he claimed didn’t do more to overturn his defeat.
"I'm lookin' at you, Perdue." Obviously, DJT said 1) No money for you; 2) Better Kelly than Dave; 3) You're a loser! (Takes one to know one.)

Despite protesting he dropped out of the race for personal reasons, I think Perdue's golf trip put him in a bottomless political hole. In one.

35terriks
feb. 24, 5:12pm

Yes, this was an interesting turn of events, wasn't it? Perdue filed when he was apparently still confident that all he had to do was go to Mar-A-Lago to kiss the ring. Pretty funny.

Loeffler perhaps doesn't need the cash quite as much, but she'll need the endorsement of the Don. She's a loser, herself, of course, having failed already against now-Senator Warnock. His margin of victory was impressive, and he has 2 years to gain more visibility as a Senator now. He will be harder to beat, not easier.

That race will be interesting, even as the cray-cray MTG will again be locked and loaded against any challengers.

Phew! They're looking bad here in Georgia.

36aspirit
Editat: feb. 24, 11:17pm

>35 terriks: Loeffler also has the disadvantages of having a 0/1 elections record, no major accomplishments to speak of in her time in the Senate, and almost no history within Georgia. She has no recognizable family ties to the state, and she has no track record of actually living for more than the few months that established her residency on the estate in Georgia. Her business ties aren't exactly good, either, as most of her and her husband's money went back to themselves. What wasn't widely shared before has time to reach the heavily conservative areas, where carpetbagging remains a sensitive issue.

Senator Warnock's campaigners have all of that to work with.

I don't think Loeffler has much of a chance, no matter how much money she throws into scaremongering about "radical liberals".

edited to add a few missing words

37terriks
feb. 24, 10:05pm

>36 aspirit: Agreed. To put it in Southern parlance, she ain't from around here. ;) Like it or not, that resonates with people.