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S'està carregant… Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011)▾Recomanacions de LibraryThing ▾Recomanacions dels membres ▾T'agradarà?
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 Apunta't a LibraryThing per saber si aquest llibre et pot agradar. ▾Converses (Enllaços) No hi ha cap discussió a Converses sobre aquesta obra. » Mira també 159 mencions ▾Relacions entre sèries i obres Pertany a aquestes col·leccions editorials
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Informació del coneixement compartit en anglès. Modifica-la per localitzar-la a la teva llengua. | |
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Informació del coneixement compartit en anglès. Modifica-la per localitzar-la a la teva llengua. In memory of Amos Tversky  | |
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Informació del coneixement compartit en anglès. Modifica-la per localitzar-la a la teva llengua. Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit from having read it.  | |
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Informació del coneixement compartit en anglès. Modifica-la per localitzar-la a la teva llengua. extreme outcomes (both high and low) are more likely to be found in small than in large samples. This explanation is not causal. The small population of a county neither causes nor prevents cancer; it merely allows the incidence of cancer to be much higher (or much lower) than it is in the larger population. The deeper truth is that there is nothing to explain. The incidence of cancer is not truly lower or higher than normal in a county with a small population, it just appears to be so in a particular year because of an accident of sampling. If we repeat the analysis next year, we will observe the same general pattern of extreme results in the small samples, but the counties where cancer was common last year will not necessarily have a high incidence this year. If this is the case, the differences between dense and rural counties do not really count as facts: they are what scientists call artifacts, observations that are produced entirely by some aspect of the method of research - in this case, by differences in sample size. p 111  Even now, you must exert some mental effort to see that the following two statements mean exactly the same thing: Large samples are more precise than small samples. Small samples yield extreme results more often than large samples do. p 111  When experts and the public disagree on their priorities, [Paul Slovic] says, 'Each side must respect the insights and intelligence of the other.' p 140  You can also take precautions that will inoculate you against regret. Perhaps the most useful is to b explicit about the anticipation of regret. If you can remember when things go badly that you considered the possibility of regret carefully before deciding, you are likely to experience less of it. You should also know that regret and hindsight bias will come together, so anything you can do to preclude hindsight is likely to be helpful. My personal hindsight-avoiding policy is to be either very thorough or completely casual when making a decision with long-term consequences. Hindsight is worse when you think a little, just enough to tell yourself later, 'I almost made a better choice.' Daniel Gilbert and his colleagues provocatively claim that people generally anticipate more regret than they will actually experience, because they underestimate the efficacy of the psychological defenses they will deploy - which they label the 'psychological immune system.' Their recommendation is that you should not put too much weight on regret; even if you have some, it will hurt less than you now think.p 352  Unless there is an obvious reason to do otherwise, most of us passively accept decision problems as they are framed and therefore rarely have an opportunity to discover the extent to which our preferences are frame-bound rather than reality-bound. p 367  Peak-end rule: The global retrospective rating was well predicted by the average o the level of pain reported at the worst moment of he experience and at its end....If the objective is to reduce patients' memory of pain, lowering the peak intensity of pain could be more important than minimizing the duration of the procedure. By the same reasoning, gradual relief may be preferable to abrupt relief if patients retain a better memory when the pain at the end of the procedure is relatively mild. p 380  In normal circumstances, however, we draw pleasure and pain from what is happening at the moment, if we attend to it. We found that French and American women spent about the same amount of time eating, but for Frenchwomen, eating was twice as likely to be focal as it was for American women. The Americans were far more prone to combine eating with other activities, and their pleasure from eating was correspondingly diluted.... it is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you. p 395  You [will inevitably use] the limited information you have as if it were all there is to know. You build the best possible story from the information available to you, and if it is a good story, you will believe it. Paradoxically, it is easier to construct a coherent story when you know little, when there are fewer pieces to fit into the puzzle. Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance. p 201  Experts who acknowledge the full extent of their ignorance may expect to be replaced by more confident competitors, who are better able to gain the trust of clients. An unbiased appreciation of uncertainty is a cornerstone of rationality -- but it is not what people and organizations want. p 263  I have always believed that scientific research is another domain where a form of optimism is essential to success: I have yet to meet a successful scientist who lacks the ability to exaggerate the importance of what he or she is doing, and I believe that someone who lacks a delusional sense of significance will wilt in the face of repeated experiences of multiple small failures and rare successes, the fate of most researchers. p 264  | |
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Informació del coneixement compartit en anglès. Modifica-la per localitzar-la a la teva llengua. | |
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▾Referències Referències a aquesta obra en fonts externes. Wikipedia en anglès (11)
▾Descripcions del llibre No Marketing Blurb ▾Descripcions provinents de biblioteques No s'han trobat descripcions de biblioteca. ▾Descripció dels membres de LibraryThing
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