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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (2009)
de George Friedman
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Provocative narrative of what the future holds - centered around the US. Some very interesting predictions and surprises. ( )
First thought. This is stupid. Why even try to predict anything how the next the 100 years will play out?
But it got me thinking .... the author thinks in terms of historical cultural interactions and demographics. The beginning was fascinating with predictions of Poland, Turkey, and Japan become major world players and how the USA is still on its ascent of being THE major world power. He also offered a plausible reason that China will fail to overtake the USA.
I also liked how he explained the strategy of the USA foreign diplomacy. It's more about keeping anyone from dominating their region than making friends. That could explain why the USA ends up fighting against their past allies all the time.
The author is smart. He knows a lot of his predictions will fall flat. And though that will happen, it would be helpful for people interested in global politics to follow his thought process.
There are not-so-great books that have amazing endings that totally redeem them, and there are pretty good books which have terrible endings that sort of ruin them. The Next 100 Years is the latter type.
Don't get me wrong, this book was very well written and George Friedman gives each of the countries their own personalities, which is so cute, but the ending was a cop out. George Friedman decided that the final conflict of the book would actually end in the 22nd century, so he was not obligated to reveal how it plays out. It was just so frustrating to get through the entire book and be met with a cliffhanger. And let's be honest. Most of us will be dead by the time the 22nd century rolls around, so it's not like we can just wait and see. That ruined the book.
And it's not like the book is without flaws (besides the fatal one at the end). He starts making up details towards the end (WWIII will start on November 24th, 2050), that he readily admits that he has no way of knowing. That's not necessarily bad, just... weird. And the writing can get a little dry at some points.
Besides the end, I really liked the book. Just prepare yourself for disappointment.
Somethings to think about, but it's just supposition as to what the future might look like, what countries will gain in power and influence, and theories about future wars. Kind of interesting, but unless I can fast forward 100 years, there's no way to judge how accurate Friedman's views might be.
I listened to this audiobook that I bought months ago at the library used book store. There were eight discs and it took 9 1/2 hours. I think I paid $1.00 for it. The whole set was lost in the house for a long time. I think this was the first time I bought a used audiobook. It was interesting to read about the author's ideas of what the future might hold.
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Wikipedia en anglès (4)
Utilizing 2000-year-old geopolitical models, expert weather forecaster George Friedman reviews major historical changes and predicts what changes await humanity in the 21st Century.
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Classificació Decimal de Dewey (DDC)303.49 — Social sciences Social Sciences Social Processes Social change Social forecasts
LCC (Clas. Bibl. Congrés EUA)
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Una edició d'aquest llibre ha estat publicada per Penguin Australia.